Carl Pavano

Surprise Surprise...Carl Pavano is back in uniform and actually pitching for the Yanks after a variety of injuries. In his first start, the highly paid righty put up some decent fantasy numbers going 5 innings and only allowing 3ERs while picking up the victory. In his second start he improved by beating the Jays by going 6 innings and only allowing 1ER this time around which earned him a win.

Pavano is 2-0 with a 3.27ERA so far in two starts and fantasy owners should really consider adding him to your lineup especially if you are in deeper leagues and you are in search of a decent pitcher.

At this time of year you have to really stop looking at name value and just look at the raw numbers that will help you win a league championship.

New Closer in Texas

As most fantasy owners know by now, the Twins have acquired Eddie Guardado from the Rangers and will hopefully fill the void left in the 8th inning by Neshak.

The Rangers will now turn to Frank Francisco to close out games. Owners who are in desperate need of saves should make sure to grab him NOW! For owners who have Guardado, you can now drop him because he will have no chances at saves since Mr. Nathan is still wearing a Twins uniform.

Shutting Down Pitchers

Major League Baseball teams don't consider fantasy owners when they make club decisions, nor they should, and this is the time of year when some rookies/young players are going to be shut down for the remainder of the season if the team is not in contention.

Every year fantasy owners are absolutely terrified of this time because when it comes to contending for a fantasy championship where every little stat counts this is the time that matters. When a pitcher like Lincecum is shut down because the team doesn't want to overwork their pitchers, ask Dusty Baker about overworking young pitchers, and risk their bright future.

This year there are plenty of pitchers that might be shut down because they are reaching an innings limit or the team is just out of contention and they need some room for prospects to get some major league work.

Below are some guys that might be near the shut down line.

J. Danks
Z. Greinke
J. Jurrjens
C. Kershaw
R. Nolasco
M. Parra
J. Sanchez
J. Duchscherer (on the DL and most likely won't be back)

If you have any of those players make sure to consider the shut down option in your strategy/plan for the remainder of the 2008 season. In a previous post I mentioned an innings limit and if you are above the limit, like myself, maybe this is a good thing. Pick up some RP who can help you in ERA/WHIP plus give you a few vulture wins.

Just don't expect your young pitchers, who are over their innings pitched from last year, to be there in 2/3 weeks time.

Maddux Update

Well, his first start as a Dodger didn't go so well. Taking the loss and a beating at the hands of the Phillies. 5.2IP, 7ERs, with 2HRs is not a way to impress fantasy owners. I recommend owners hold and see how his second start goes. If it goes just as badly, then drop and find a new pitcher.

Greg Maddux

After being traded to the Dodgers, for the second time, I am interested to see how Greg Maddux pitches. With a better ballpark, better lineup to support him, and being placed into a playoff race I wonder if Maddux can pick up his pitching and give fantasy owners another viable option for the stretch run.

In 2006, after being traded to the Dodgers from the Cubs, Maddux went 6-3, 3.30ERA, and a 1.09WHIP over a span of 73.2IP. Those are some numbers that can help fantasy owners.

If you have room on your roster take a chance and grab Maddux and stash him on your bench. If Maddux can relive 2006 again, he can be a secret weapon that other owners might just overlook.

Innings Limit

The 2008 fantasy season is reaching the end of August and what most managers are facing now is an innings limit. Some are over and some are way under. For those who have innings left, I am assuming no one really has blown all their innings so far, this is a great time to start managing your innings in a wise way.

Throughout the year I have had 5-6 starters pitch continually and I am currently over by 120+ innings. The reason I have kept going with 5-6 starters is because they have all been producing and giving me what I drafted them for. Plus, on top of the 5-6 starters I have sprinkled in some hot pitchers who were absolutely dominating during a stretch of the season.

Remember, this innings limit is nothing to work yourself over because it is meaningless, to the point of having to finish at a certain point. If you finish your innings limit now or even a month ago it doesn't matter but only if you used them WISELY. So, if you used your innings for pitchers who have tossed huge innings this year and have also given you the stats you seek then who cares when you reach the limit.

If you are in the position of being short on innings, make sure to use them wisely. Only start your pitchers if they are in favourable match-ups, unless you have one of the top pitchers like Webb, Lincecum, and CC, because you don't want to waste your remaining innings on terrible starts. With 4 weeks left in the season you can quickly kill your chances at a fantasy championship if you waste your innings. On the other side of the coin, you can easily improve your pitching stats and gain a few valuable points and win a championship.

The time is near, for innings, so make sure to look at your staff and use an unbias eye to see who to sit and who to pitch.

Hot Hitters/Pitchers

Below are some hot hitting/pitching players.

Hitters - Past 7 Days
Nick Punto IF - .419AVG, 8Rs, 2SBs
Ronnie Belliard IF - .571AVG, 5RBIs
Willy Aybar IF - .391AVG, 1HR, 3Rs, 3RBIs
Gabe Gross OF - .316AVG, 1HR, 4Rs, 3RBIs, 1SB

Pitchers - Past Month
Brett Myers SP - 41.2IP, 3-1, 30K, 1.94ERA, 0.96WHIP
Braden Looper SP - 40.0IP, 2-3, 22K, 2.02ERA, 0.97WHIP
Steven Shell RP - 18IP, 15Ks, 2.00ERA, 0.72WHIP
Jesse Carlson RP - 11IP, 11Ks, 3.18ERA, 0.97WHIP

Around the Majors

Troy Percival of the Rays is back on the DL for the third time this season. The closer is suffering from an injury to his right knee. The Rays will have a closer by committee. This is the worst case scenario for any owners who are in a battle for saves. If you have a chance go out and grab these guys Wheeler, Balfour, Howell, and even Miller. The most likely candidate will be Wheeler, who owns 4 saves this year, and is the only one who has major league experience in the closer position prior to this season.

Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals is back on the DL and for owners who thought he might give you a boost for stretch run just got hit hard. This former CY Young winner in 2005 now finds himself trying to recover from a shoulder strain. All owners should drop him ASAP and find another player. If he he outs the minimum 15 days, which I doubt he will, he will only give you 2/3 starts maximum. Plus, with his history of injury the Cards will most likely shut him down for the rest of the season.

Melky Cabrera of the Yankees is now finding a life outside the historic gates of Yankee Stadium and now catching fly balls in the minors. He was demoted after a terrible slump which has lasted since May. After a hot start in which he hit 7HRs he is not just hitting .240AVG. He should not be on any teams except AL-Only leagues but after his demotion he should be on the wire in all leagues.

Tom Glavine of the Braves is back on the DL. Owners, just drop him.

Billy Wagner of the Mets is scheduled to return to the bullpen on Monday when he is allowed to be activated. This is not soon enough for a bullpen that has been shelled in his absence.

Mike Lowell

It seems the Red Sox aren't immune to the injury bug either. The Sox have just placed veteran Mike Lowell on the 15Day DL with a strained left oblique muscle. This is an injury you need to monitor very closely because an injury of this calibre can turn into a problem that might linger and keep him out of the lineup for 3-4 weeks.

If you are an owner make sure to monitor his status and if something happens where he won't be coming back for 3-6 weeks, it is wise to drop him and find a replacement if you need room on your roster.

Official

News coming out of Tampa Bay is telling the world Carl Crawford will be out 6-8 weeks which means he is going to finished for the fantasy world. This comes at a terrible especially since owners have no time or chance to find a replacement for his statistics.

Even with the poor year Crawford is having statistically he is still producing at a 3rd outfielder pace and if you have him at the 3rd OF spot you are not doing so badly.

As I mentioned before with Carlos Lee this is the time for individuals in keeper leagues to take notice and maybe acquire Crawford for a lower price then you if he was healthy. If an owner in your league is in contention for the championship go out and try to send him an offer and see if you can grab him and stash him as a keeper for 2009.

Remember, if you are in contention and have Crawford trade him away now because you need stats now and who gives a rats ass if you lose a keeper for next year, this is now and winning a championship holds higher priority than your 2009 season.

The lesson is WIN NOW!!

Mr. Street

Huston Street of the A's is now just another RP in the fantasy world. He has fallen hard from former years where he posted nice fantasy numbers which owners could be satisfied with. Turn to 2008 and this closer, now former, is just throwing innings that seem to be extremely irrelevant in the whole grand scheme of things. The A's GM, Billy Beane, has put Street on waivers, rumour has it and it seems no one is opening up their clubhouse doors to this ex-closer.

Now for current fantasy owners who need help in their saves category you might want to go ahead and pick up Ziegler who is dominating hitters after making a trip from the bullpen to the mound. The only way Street will find his spot in the 9th inning in the near future is if Ziegler falls apart and Street starts to throw pitches that don't end up over the fence but instead in the catchers mitt.

Adam Dunn

Now that the Diamondbacks have acquired the services of Adam Dunn from the Reds lets talk about the fantasy impact this has on both teams. Lets begin with the Reds.

With the absence of Griffey and Dunn from the lineup individuals like Bruce, Phillips, and Encarnicion will lose some protection that Dunn offered in the lineup. I don't see a huge hit in numbers for these players because they are all solid hitters at the plate but as of right now I don't think this deal helps them.

Adding Dunn to the Diamondbacks lineup gives them a bat that can change a game with one swing, positively and negatively. Dunn is the prototypical hit or miss kind of hitter. He either hits a HR or finds a seat after putting up a K. Look for Jackson, Young, and Reynolds to see more hittable pitches in the near future because of the protection Dunn offers. This trade seems to offer a third punch after the likes of Webb and Haren.

Update on Previous Post

The injuries to Crawford and Longoria will most likely keep them out for 3-4 weeks but if the Rays some how fall out of contention they will most likely be rested and told to stay home for the season. There is no reason in the world to risk further damage to these two players since they will be the cornerstone to their franchise.

PS. Rocco Baldelli is back in the Rays lineup. If he is available, which he shouldn't be, go out and obtain his services.

Keeper League Advice

All of a sudden star players are hitting the DL with season ending injuries, or close to it, and for individuals who are not in contention for a fantasy championship this season this is a great opportunity to cash in.

If you are in a keeper league and are sitting in the "build for next year" mode please take note. Guys like Carlos Lee, Evan Longoria, and Carl Crawford are names that have found themselves on the DL as of late and this is the time to try and trade for them.

If owners who are in contention for a championship own these guys try and make an offer for one of them. These players are all keeper worthy players and if their owners are serious about winning a championship, this year, will gladly trade them away for players who are producing now. Lets be real here, you can not go out onto the wire and replace a Lee, Longoria, and a Crawford.

Instead of just sitting and waiting for the year to end go out and see if you can build a strong keeper list for the 2009 season and hopefully you'll be in contention this time next season instead of worrying about your keeper list.

Quick Tip

The final stretch of the season is quickly approaching and this is the time of year where name value is thrown out the window. When you are looking for players, just cover up the names and take the stats for what they are...STATS. This is what will separate winners from the lower tier fantasy players. Who cares about name value right now when some no name dude is hitting .310AVG for the past 2 months.

This is the time of year when every stat counts and every stat left on the waiver wire will haunt the owners who were contemplating of picking them up but was afraid to drop a player just because of his name. So, go out there and see who is on the wire that has been lighting things up on the field. If you don't take the chance now you'll be sitting in your chair in the off-season thinking of how lame it feels to finish second when you had a golden opportunity to finish first.

A Few Things to Take Note of...

CC Sabathia of the Brewers is still cruising after being traded from the Indians. He is now 6-0 with his new team and has, alone, completely turned my one of my fantasy teams from being a bottom feeder to a contender. I don't see him turning into a terrible pitcher, like his start to the season, but if you are pretty solid in pitching but need some help in hitting go out and see if you can grab one of those great bats out there. Guys like Hanley, Wright, A-Rod, Holliday, and Sizemore are guys that should be in your trade negotiations.

Billy Wagner of the Mets is still recovering from a left arm strain and should be coming back from the DL when he is scheduled to but you never know with arm injuries. The bullpen is kind of in trouble so if you are in dyer need of saves look to Heilman or Kunz but at this moment your guess is as good as anyones since their bullpen sucks!

Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs has hit his 3rd HR of the season.

A-Rod of the Yankees is struggling but if you are in need of a hitter see if you can grab him from a disgruntled owner. You won't get him on a HUGE significant discount but you might find it a little easier to grab him.

Mike Aviles of the Royals continues to hit. In his past ten games he has raised his AVG from .314 to .341 while collecting 21Hs with 2HRs. This is a guy you want on your team RIGHT NOW!

Teams to Pick On

If you are in need of pitching but can not afford to trade away hitters for pitchers I have a plan for you. Go to the waiver wire and see who are the probable pitchers for the next day. Make sure to grab some pitchers who are pitching against the following teams.

A's - .244BA
Pirates - .245BA
Nationals - .245BA
Giants - .254BA

On top of the poor team batting averages these teams struggle to score runs (minus the Pirates). So if you are in need of pitching help try and see who is pitching against these clubs and pick them up. This is the time to gamble and see if you can rise in the pitching standings.

Notable Pitchers

Shaun Marcum of the Jays is back and it seems he is back to his normal self. Go out and see if you can grab this pitcher because with his DL stint he might be able to finish the season on the mound instead of being rested for the final month of September.

Gio Gonzalez of the A's is going to be on the big league team and people in AL-Only leagues should take notice. Go out and acquire his services.

Joba

Job is on the DL and if you are in a keeper league and the owner who has Joba is in contention and needs help, go out and try to make a deal for Joba. This is a great chance for owners who are in keeper leagues who are out of contention to try and acquire Joba in a trade.

Get it done!

Jeff Karstens

So far Jeff Karstens of the Pirates is throwing some sort of magic towards the plate because batters seem to have no clue what the hell is going on. Hitters are hitting .143 through 15IP. Jeff just got off a 2-hitter and is 2-0 after 2 starts and it seems owners are jumping and to the FA wire to find and pick him up.

BUYER BEWARE!! Jeff is not a pitcher you really want to go overboard with if you are trying to protect some pitching categories. If you are gambling and need some luck to make a move in your league standings take the chance but don't think Jeff is going to bring you a championship.

I think you have seen the best of Jeff so far in his first 2 starts because if you look at his minor league numbers they are not too impressive.

The Prince is Back

Well it took some time but it seems like the HR stroke from Prince Fielder is finally here. Over the past 4 games he has 5HRs and 6RBIs. The problem with Prince and his owners is he was drafted for 40+HRs and is not living up to his draft position. He will most likely land himself in the low to mid 30's in HRs and this is what owners should expect from him when they drafted him and not the 50HR season he had last year.

If you are in need of help in other categories this might be a great time to send Prince to another team via a trade because of his recent hot streak with HRs. In my current keeper league, I am trying to grab a legitimate first rounder for next year (Hanley, Wright, A-Rod, Reyes, and maybe Kinsler) and Prince is one of those players that I am trying to package in a deal.

Remember, realistic expecatations is a very important part of fantasy baseball and to be brutally honest most people, including those "fantasy experts" seem to have a problem with it.

Focus on Categories

I can not say this enough to any fantasy owner who is in contention for a fantasy championship, THIS IS THE TIME TO FOCUS AND ATTACK CATEGORIES. I have a few friends who have asked about how to really win a championship or even hold a lead in a league, well this is how you do it and it is very simple.

The first thing you need to do is look at the standings in an UNBIAS way. I this is hard since you love all your players and you think they will have career years every year, well this is wrong. Don't expect some player to all of a sudden turn it around and hit .320 the rest of the way when he is a .275 hitter and he is currently hitting .295. He'll most likely hit around .270 the rest of the way to bring his average back down to his career average, remember the law of averages!

Secondly, sort each category and see where you sit compared with the rest of the league. If you are behind by say 30HR's don't expect to make that up unless you find a way to deal for Dunn, Howard, or A-Rod. At this point in the season, barring injuries, you can find yourself overcoming a 15-20HR's difference and maybe even 25 if you have a huge power surge and the people above fall into hitting singles. Make sure to sort each category and see if you can realistically climb up and gather enough points to be in first. REMEMBER, don't just look above you in the standings but also look below you. Someone who is 2HR's behind you or .001 point in average behind you can easily surpass you.

Thirdly, now that you have sorted each category and you know what is above and below you, you have to choose which categories you are very strong in and which categories you need to improve. So in my situation, I have a lead of around 20-25 in saves (I have been trying to deal closers forever but with no luck) so it is the time to send a closer or two to someone for a player you need. If you need steals try for a player like Taveras, if you need average look for Ichiro, and if you need power look to Dunn or Howard.

Fourthly, many of my friends have never thought about this but trade players to a team that can take points away from a team above you. For example, if the team above you in the overall standings is competing with someone over saves give a closer to the person via trade and see the guy above you lose a point in a category. This is completely fair and breaks no ethics issues.

Fifth, the baseball season is very long and players tend to tire throughout the season so expect many players to slow down their pace from earlier in the season. This really applies to rookies who have not endured a full season of MLB baseball and are almost running on fumes. This is particularly true for young pitchers who are approaching their season high in innings. The more innings a pitchers throws over his career high the more chance he will tire and lose his effectiveness.

I hope this little post helps you keep you in the lead or gives you what you need to know to climb in the standings.

Liriano

Francisco Liriano is back in the majors for the Twins and he is expected to be here for the rest of his career. Owners who have him should be overjoyed with his call-up since he was absolutely tearing things up down in minors. For the ones who don't have him go out and see if he is on the waiver wire because this is a guy you need to grab. Look for Liriano to have around 10 or so starts for the rest of the season and don't be shocked if you see him dominate for the entire time.

This is the type of pitcher that can make a difference in your pitching categories. Plus, if you were the one that added Chris Carpenter as a free agent as well you could see two top tier pitchers dominate for the final two months of the season.

Between the two they are capable of putting up HUGE numbers for example 10-13Ws, 120-140K's, low 3 ERA, and combine that with a WHIP around 1.1...nice end to the season eh?

Manny & Bay

Unless you live under a rock you already know about the big deal that sent future hall of famer Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers and brought Jason Bay to the Red Sox from the Pirates in a 3-team deal. Here is a quick breakdown.

Owners of Manny who are in AL-only leagues are feeling a huge hit in their power numbers and, in most leagues, you will have the rights to Jason Bay. For owners in NL-only leagues who owned Jason Bay and have the rights to Manny should be ecstatic. Manny is going into a very explosive lineup that can provide some huge RBI chances for Manny in the 4 slot. With Pierre, Kemp, and Martin batting in front of Manny the chances of RBI's. With Manny being in a position where he is happy and motivated this could be a huge final two months to the season. Get ready for some production!!

Jason Bay is going into a very productive lineup and it is time for owners of Bay to see if he can produce on the big stage/media frenzy that comes with Red Sox nation. But with the green monster and the people that surround him in the lineup Bay could also be in for a huge 2 months. Expect a bump in runs, RBI's, and HR's if he can take advantage of the green monster.