Drafting Pitchers Late

One of my draft strategies is to draft hitters early and wait on pitchers. Look at the struggles of CC Sabathia early in this season. It isn't worth having a pitcher drafted in the first 4 rounds pitching like a glorified pitching coach. Another reason I always take pitchers late in drafts is their tendency to get injured. Pitchers put an enormous amount of strain on their arms when throwing at such high velocities. Erik Bedard of the Mariners is injured and like Sabathia was a high pick in most drafts. Those are two prime examples of high draft picks that have resulted in nothing more than stat draining players eating up roster spots.

Looking on the bright side, here are two pitchers who were drafted in the early to mid teens. Look at the value they have given owners.

Tim Lincecum - 23IP, 23H, 4ER, 0HR, 9BB, 27K's, and a 1.57ERA

Oliver Perez - 21.2IP, 20H, 6ER, 1HR, 12BB, 21K's, and a 2.49ERA

I drafted both players in the 10th and the 15th round respectively. I do have to admit to drafting Bedard early but I felt like I had to because people in the draft were snatching up premium pitchers during the 4th-7th rounds so I ended up drafting Bedard in the 6th round, which is a nice place to draft a high premium pitcher. I do try and find one pitcher in my drafts who is a true ace calibre starter. It sucks he is on the DL though.

My point is...draft pitchers later who have upside because if they don't pan out there are PLENTY of up and coming pitchers who will be available on the waiver wire. Also, pitchers are streaky and if you can closely watch pitchers throughout the season you see some pitchers have 2-3 great starts in a row but throw batting practice throughout the rest of their seasons. DRAFT HITTERS EARLY, worry about pitchers later.

Chad Cordero

At the end of the Nationals game you, as Chad Cordero owners, might have noticed that he was not on the mound during his normal save opportunity. A fellow teammate, Jon Rauch, was pitching the ninth inning trying to preserve a 1 run lead. He did not keep the lead and was bailed out by his teammate Zimmerman in the bottom of the ninth to grab a vulture win.

Here is the important news for Cordero owners.

According to reports Cordero was suffering from shoulder stiffness but we might be seeing a new closer move in right before our eyes. The third game of the season and a closer might be changing. See...going back to my draft strategy, pitchers are ALWAYS prone to injury and are usually unpredictable. Ok, I'm going a little overboard with this right now since it's only the first game but as fantasy owners you always need to keep an eye out for potential changes in major league lineups.

If you have a spot to burn, pick up Jon Rauch for the time being until the Cordero thing is cleared up.

Rich Harden

With all the arm problems Rich Harden has had throughout his career this may be the year he stays healthy. So far Rich Harden is showing what he can do when he is healthy. Through 6 innings in the second of a two game series, in Tokyo Japan to open the MLB season, Harden is throwing a 1 hitter...his one mistake a HR to my main man, Manny Ramirez.

As of the 6th inning. 6IP, 1R, 3HITS, 9K's, 3BB, 1ER.

Make sure to look at the K's. He's a prime example of the prototypical pitcher from my strategy, heavy on K's.

Only if Harden could stay healthy. He is a great late round pick in drafts and because of his upside. I have found that many people shy away from Harden because of his injury risk. If you already took a top 5 pitcher (Johan, Webb, Beckett, Peavy, or Sabathia) you have some room to take a chance on a pitcher like Harden.

If he stays healthy he has the potential to be a top 5 pitcher! Now that's upside!

Draft Strategy

There are many competing strategies, that all work, but in my mind my strategy seems to work better than others. I focus on hitters and use pitchers to compliment and fill out my roster. My reasoning behind drafting premium hitters over arms is simple...pitchers are too volatile with respect to performance and injury risk. Hitters seem to perform as expected from year to year...having players that you don't have to worry about during the season reduces the stress of finding new players.

Here is a quick look into my draft strategy. I am assuming a 12-team, mixed, 5x5 league...also known as a vanilla league. I would draft 3 premium hitters before even thinking of a pitcher. Note: there is one and I mean only one pitcher worth picking in the first or second round...Johan Santana of the New York Mets. He is by far the best pitcher in the game. Now you might be wondering, how does this work in your strategy if you just said no pitchers...this is an exception. Okay, back to the strategy. Try and look for hitters who contribute to all 5 hitting categories. Individuals like A-Rod, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Matt Holliday, and Chase Utley. These players will absolutely go in the first round of ANY draft. After picking up 3 hitters, assuming you did not pick Santana, it is time to pick up a pitcher. This is the time, round 4/5, to pick up a premium pitcher, they include:

• Johan Santana (He will not last past Round two)
  
• Jake Peavy
• Eric Bedard
• C.C. Sabathia
• Brandon Webb

The above list consists of the premium pitchers in baseball for the 2008 season. Taking one of these pitchers in Round 4-5-6 is a must! Okay, I'll retract on the "a must!" comment. You don't have to go out and draft one of these pitchers but if you do end up with one of them it will reduce the need during your draft to find quality pitchers. If you grab one of these guys you can wait another 2-4 rounds without having to draft another starter.

Now that I have 3 premium batters and a stud pitcher I try and focus on a closer. Remember, SAVES and STEALS are always the hardest to come by in fantasy baseball. So, go out in Round 5-8 and grab a premium closer. They include:

• Billy Wagner
• Joe Nathan
• Jonathon Papelbon
• Francisco Rodriguez
• J.J. Putz

So, now you have 3 premium batters, 1 ace pitcher, and 1 premium closer. You are on your way to building a fantasy baseball championship team.

Looking at the player pool in 2008 there are positions that are weak and strong. Outfield is always weaker then you think. With 3 OF slots and a UTIL in most leagues you will find it difficult to draft 3 premium OF's. Third base this year is strong as well. If you do not get A-Rod or David Wright don't fear, you can get great stats at a good value from round 11-15 with the likes of Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, Chone Figgins, and don't forget about the touted 2007 rookie Alex Gordon. Second base is Chase Utley and everyone else. The position to watch out for in 2008 is the catcher position. There are 5 catchers worth drafting, Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada, and Brian McCann. If you don't get one of these catchers in the early single digit rounds, and you won't find them past round 8 TRUST ME, then don't even bother drafting a catcher until round 15+. It just isn't worth it with the talent out there. I didn't mention 1B or SS but both positions are fairly strong.

Okay a quick recap.

• Hitters first! R1-3 maybe even 4
  
• Premium pitchers R4-6
• One of the top 5 catchers in round 5-6-7
• Closer Rd5-8

After following this strategy you should have a decent team that can compete from day one. Remember, drafts are unpredictable except A-Rod as first pick, so remember, go with value over anything else.