Opening Day

Okay, officially it was on Sunday but I don't consider that opening day since there was only one game played.

The fantasy season is officially here and for most of us this day couldn't come sooner. Here are a few things I noticed on the first day. Oh yeah, hope all your drafts went smoothly.

CC Sabathia - Don't worry, do you remember his start to last season? Enough said.

Mets Bullpen - If you want to grab some Holds look no further than the Mets revamped bullpen. I believe these boys will give all the starters in the rotation a boost in wins. See if you can grab a few guys from their bullpen and also maybe one of their starters.

Aaron Harang - He ended up with a loss but overall I am very impressed with his stuff. Owners who drafted him late will get a nice return at years end. For guys who want to trade for him, why not. The guy who drafted him might just look at the loss and figure he's on the road for another terrible year.

Emilio Bonifacio - Guy had 3SB's. This might be a guy who turns into a Dave Roberts or Podsednik. If you have room, grab him and stash him on your bench to see if he can continue his stealing ways. Had 6SBs in 157 at-bats last year. Keeps it up for the entire year and that could turn into 30+ steals. Value!!!!

Cliff Lee - That is why I don't draft starters early. Had a great year last year and it seems he'll be back to his days as a normal starter in the bigs.

Justin Verlander - What is wrong with this guy. If I had him on my team I would sit him on the bench for a few starts until he straightens things out. Not droppable...not yet!!

Closers - Make sure to pay attention to the closer situations throughout the league. These are the guys that can make a difference in the standings.

SIGNINGS!!

The winter meetings in Vegas finally brought some news to the baseball world.


C.C. Sabathia - I had a 10% chance in my head that Sabathia would not sign with the Yankees this off-season and I guess the 90% was right. Sabathia signed for 7 seasons and is worth $161million. What I have read is Sabathia was a little reluctant to live in New York because he just didn't know what it would be like so the Yankees gave Sabathia a nice cluase in his contract, option to leave after 3 years. Fantasy wise, this is nothing big. As long as Sabathia stays healthy he is, in my eyes, the #2 pitcher in fantasy baseball behind Johan. The only thing to take note of is how hard the Brewers pitched him last year. He threw 130.1innings in 17 starts as a Brewer and most of those starts had him throw 100-120 pitches. In his career, Sabathia has thrown plenty of innings but you never know when this might catch up with him.

AJ Burnett - Where will you land? Reports are coming out that the Yankees are offering him a 5 year $90million contract. Minimal fantasy impact since he'd be staying in the AL East. Plus, with his health concerns and his "contract year" effort behind him, he won't be finding a place on my fantasy team in 2009.

Ben Sheets - Will you be a Yankee too?

Derek Lowe - Following Sheets?

K-Rod - The newly crowned single season saves leader did not get his Mariano money but he did find a home and team that is going to pay him nicely. The Mets will pay K-Rod $37million over 3 years. Fantasy wise, this is a great move for owners of any Mets starters. With all the problems the Mets had last year (let's not forget about two years ago) of blowups from the bullpen, Mets starters might now get the wins they deserved. K-Rod is a top notch fantasy closer and should be taken in the draft as a top-3 closer.

JJ Putz - Not a signing but the a trade. Putz was acquired from the Mariners by the........Mets! Omar and company really want to rebuild their bullpen from scratch so they won't have anymore of those September collapses again. Fantasy wise, great news for owners of Mets starters but bad news for people who had Putz as their closer. He will assume the set-up role.

New York Mets - Omar, what about signing Brian Fuentes too?

Kerry Wood - Reportedly has signed with the Indians for 2 years worth $20million. Fantasy wise, this is a good move. Wood finds a new home and a place where he can start over with a clean slate. Wood still has the ability to post huge numbers (K/9, decent ERA, and saves).

Edwin Jackson - A young 14 game winner in 2008 was traded to the Tigers by the Rays. This young starting pitcher has thrown a total of 456 innings in the bigs and looks like a solid 3/4 pitcher in fantasy leagues. This kid has a 5.3K/9 ratio, which is alright, but he has a fairly high career ERA of 5.15. I have Edwin on my surprise list for 2009.

Congrats Timmy!

Tim Lincecum is the 2008 NL Cy Young Winner!

Now, is he the new #1 pitcher in fantasy baseball? Not so fast.

Timmy has the stuff to be the #1 but he needs to prove he can go into every season and put up the same numbers. The top still belongs to Johan with CC nipping at his heels.

I just hope he continues to throw smoke because he is one of my 2009 keepers.

Sabathia

As expected, CC Sabathia has officially filed for free agency. The question now is, will he sign a bigger contract than Mr. Johan Santana?

CC Sabathia

The season is finally over for CC Sabathia and now comes the greatest time in the year for him and his agent, FREE AGENCY!! In the off-season Sabathia will garner plenty of attention from the big salary teams and maybe even a few small market teams might throw something in just to show their fans they "tried" to land the big fish.

The problem I see with Sabathia is the tremendous workload he took on this season. He pitched a total of 253 innings in the regular season and another 3.2 innings in the playoffs. Simple math and that comes out to be 256.2 innings pitched in 2008. 256.2?!?!?! holy shit, that's a lot of innings and you still haven't added in the really high pitch counts he threw during those innnings. During his stretch with the Brewers he basically threw 110-130 every game.

Over his entire career this guy has been a work horse and has found a way to stay off the DL. Since 2001 he has pitched at least 180.1 innings and peaked at 241 last season. So, I guess the added 15.2 innings isn't huge but in my eyes this has to take a toll.

I know there is an argument between traditional guys and current guys with respect to the innings. The traditional coming with the old guys use to pitch 300 innings every year and didn't worry about a pitch count while the "newbies" baby their pitchers. I kind of lean towards babying them by watching their pitch counts, especially early in the year. Anyways, this talk belongs in another post.

Fantasy baseball information time. People should be drafting Sabathia as a 2nd/3rd rounder next year. BUT, I would be a little skeptical on his performane just because of his added workload over the past two season. But again, there are special guys out there, for example Roy Halladay. If it wasn't for all those freak injuries he would be throwing 30 starts every year as well. Draft him because if you don't someone else will because anchoring your rotation with Sabathia isn't the worst thing in the world.

A Few Things to Take Note of...

CC Sabathia of the Brewers is still cruising after being traded from the Indians. He is now 6-0 with his new team and has, alone, completely turned my one of my fantasy teams from being a bottom feeder to a contender. I don't see him turning into a terrible pitcher, like his start to the season, but if you are pretty solid in pitching but need some help in hitting go out and see if you can grab one of those great bats out there. Guys like Hanley, Wright, A-Rod, Holliday, and Sizemore are guys that should be in your trade negotiations.

Billy Wagner of the Mets is still recovering from a left arm strain and should be coming back from the DL when he is scheduled to but you never know with arm injuries. The bullpen is kind of in trouble so if you are in dyer need of saves look to Heilman or Kunz but at this moment your guess is as good as anyones since their bullpen sucks!

Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs has hit his 3rd HR of the season.

A-Rod of the Yankees is struggling but if you are in need of a hitter see if you can grab him from a disgruntled owner. You won't get him on a HUGE significant discount but you might find it a little easier to grab him.

Mike Aviles of the Royals continues to hit. In his past ten games he has raised his AVG from .314 to .341 while collecting 21Hs with 2HRs. This is a guy you want on your team RIGHT NOW!

Sabathia (a Brewer)

The Indians and the Brewers have agreed, in principle, to a deal that would send CC Sabathia to the Brewers for prospects (Matt LaPorta, Zach Johnson, Rob Bryson, and maybe a 4th player). The key player in this deal, besides Sabathia, is LaPorta. He is hitting .288, .402OBP, .978OPS, with 20HRs, and 66RBIs all in 302ABs down in AA.

Owners in AL-Only leagues are the ones that take a huge hit since they lose a stud pitcher and don't get anything in return. LaPorta is not a proven commodity in the majors but should make a difference on fantasy rosters. DO NOT grab him with a high waiver priority but if you have room, go out and obtain his services if he the Indians announce him as an addition to the major league club instead of the minors.

NL-Only leagues really benefit from this move because it adds a huge arm and whoever has the rights to the first waiver priority or however your rules are set for this kind of trade is going to luck out.

Drafting Pitchers Late

One of my draft strategies is to draft hitters early and wait on pitchers. Look at the struggles of CC Sabathia early in this season. It isn't worth having a pitcher drafted in the first 4 rounds pitching like a glorified pitching coach. Another reason I always take pitchers late in drafts is their tendency to get injured. Pitchers put an enormous amount of strain on their arms when throwing at such high velocities. Erik Bedard of the Mariners is injured and like Sabathia was a high pick in most drafts. Those are two prime examples of high draft picks that have resulted in nothing more than stat draining players eating up roster spots.

Looking on the bright side, here are two pitchers who were drafted in the early to mid teens. Look at the value they have given owners.

Tim Lincecum - 23IP, 23H, 4ER, 0HR, 9BB, 27K's, and a 1.57ERA

Oliver Perez - 21.2IP, 20H, 6ER, 1HR, 12BB, 21K's, and a 2.49ERA

I drafted both players in the 10th and the 15th round respectively. I do have to admit to drafting Bedard early but I felt like I had to because people in the draft were snatching up premium pitchers during the 4th-7th rounds so I ended up drafting Bedard in the 6th round, which is a nice place to draft a high premium pitcher. I do try and find one pitcher in my drafts who is a true ace calibre starter. It sucks he is on the DL though.

My point is...draft pitchers later who have upside because if they don't pan out there are PLENTY of up and coming pitchers who will be available on the waiver wire. Also, pitchers are streaky and if you can closely watch pitchers throughout the season you see some pitchers have 2-3 great starts in a row but throw batting practice throughout the rest of their seasons. DRAFT HITTERS EARLY, worry about pitchers later.

CC Sabathia

Ouch, another terrible outing by Indians ace pitcher C.C. Sabathia. The start to this season is nothing owners ever expected in their craziest of dreams. This time around, the heavy bats of the Tigers gave Sabathia another 9 ER's.

Owners shouldn't outright panic but should be worried. This is a contract year for Sabathia and we all know contract years can lead to major swings in stats, look at Adrian Beltre of 2004 and Andruw Jones of 2007. Just hope Sabathia turns things around and becomes a 2004 Beltre because if he continues and struggles like Jones in 2007, owners will have wasted a high draft pick.

My advice is to wait him out. Bench him for his next start and watch what's happening from the sideline. He throws a gem, throw him back into your lineup for his next start. If he throws batting practice and allows another 9ER's, worry about it then. But on the bright side, his velocity is there but he just can't find his location. Just hope injuries aren't causing this terrible start.