Monday, March 31, 2008

Eric Bedard

As an Eric Bedard owner myself, I am a little uneasy about his stats in the spring (8.63ERA), ouch! So, is it time to panic? Of course not, he hasn't even set foot onto the mound for the Mariners season opener. Arguably one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball, owners should have some worry with his spring numbers. His upside is tremendous with potential to strikeout over 210 batters and boost that with 14+ wins. Keep in mind that Bedard has increased his innings pitched every year of his career except for a stint on the DL that cost him, most likely, being the leader in K's for the 2007 season.

Currently, there is no news of any injury or mechanical issues with Bedard so lets just chalk it up to being rusty in spring training.

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Chad Cordero

At the end of the Nationals game you, as Chad Cordero owners, might have noticed that he was not on the mound during his normal save opportunity. A fellow teammate, Jon Rauch, was pitching the ninth inning trying to preserve a 1 run lead. He did not keep the lead and was bailed out by his teammate Zimmerman in the bottom of the ninth to grab a vulture win.

Here is the important news for Cordero owners.

According to reports Cordero was suffering from shoulder stiffness but we might be seeing a new closer move in right before our eyes. The third game of the season and a closer might be changing. See...going back to my draft strategy, pitchers are ALWAYS prone to injury and are usually unpredictable. Ok, I'm going a little overboard with this right now since it's only the first game but as fantasy owners you always need to keep an eye out for potential changes in major league lineups.

If you have a spot to burn, pick up Jon Rauch for the time being until the Cordero thing is cleared up.

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Early Season Trades

Please do not go out and make dramatic changes to your team just because your star players went 0-4 or had one bad outing on the mound. This is game ONE of 162. The season is extremely long, filled with ups and downs. Yes, I understand that starting a year with a 4-4 with a HR and 3RBI's would be great but this isn't the time to jump overboard.

Don't take this as, "DO NOT TRADE" but instead take this as trade only if it is going to make your team better by filling holes that you need. Remember, you must always look at your team with a subjective view and provide no bias towards any players. This is fantasy baseball and nothing speaks louder than NUMBERS. On my teams, I will trade anyone that will benefit my team, yes, this includes A-Rod.

But...if there is an owner out there that is panicking early in the season don't be afraid to take advantage. It is his/her fault for jumping overboard and trying to unload players because of a bad game, week, or even opening month. At all times keep your eyes open for players on the waiver wire and also for people who keep offering trade proposals.

Trade for value not for the sake of changing names on your fantasy roster.

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Elijah Duke

Highly touted prospect, Dukes of the Nationals, will be placed on the 15-DL after a hamstring injury in the opening game of the season. For fantasy owners, this isn't a huge injury since most owners don't even have him on their team. I am a big fan of winning now instead of grabbing the next hot prospect. Dukes should only be owned in deep leagues. This kid has the potential for good things but in a pretty pathetic lineup don't expect huge numbers from this kid.

Dukes has shown some signs of steals in his minor league career and this hamstring doesn't help his cause.

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Season Opener...


Ok, it's not the official opener but it is the first game played on North American soil for 2008.

The Washington Nationals opened their new stadium, Nationals Park, by beating the Atlanta Braves 3-2 in dramatic fashion. The first pitch was thrown by President Bush to usher in a new era of baseball to the Nations Capital.

Ryan Zimmerman took matters into his own hands by hitting a home run to put the final touches on the new stadium. Speaking of Zimmerman, make sure to look for him this year in your fantasy leagues, he should provide a nice boost even though 3B is a deep position.

Photo Credits
Bush - AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais
Zimmerman -
AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais

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Saturday, March 29, 2008

Nomo Nomo Nomo


Just some real baseball news. Hideo Nomo suffered a setback in his attempt at a comeback with the Royals. Nomo has an injury to his groin and will return to Arizona to get healthy and the Royals will make a final decision after the treatment.

Courtesy of MLB.com, please take a look at Nomo's impressive numbers throughout his MLB career.

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Liriano to Minors


Hard throwing Franciso Liriano of the Twins will start the season in the minors. He is being sent down for two starts and will pitch in a Class-A and also a Class-AAA game to work on his fastball. Depending on his velocity and his ability to command his pitches the Twins will consider bringing him back up after the two starts.

Fantasy owners, take this as a good sign. If there were problems with his arm he would be on the DL. The Twins are going to be extremely cautious with Liriano after Tommy John Surgery. Most owners drafted him with the thought of him being on the DL or slowed by the surgery. Waiting for the first two weeks is nothing.

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Friday, March 28, 2008

One World to Another

Outside fantasy baseball and into another fantasy world. Since I don't breathe fantasy baseball 24/7, I have to say I am completely addicted to the show Entourage on HBO. This show is absolutely nuts!! Not living in a house with HBO and having to wait until the DVD release is going to be tough since Season 5 isn't suppose to start until Fall2008. Guess the re-runs are going to have to do.

If you haven't seen the show yet...go and grab it now!!!


PS. From time to time I will post things of interest outside the fantasy baseball world.

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2008 Rookie Class

Two Thumbs Up

Joey Votto (1B) Reds - Dusty Baker has given Joey the opportunity to play and if AAA numbers prove to be right (.294, 22HR) and then the impressive .321 and 4HR during his call-up during Sept 2007, Joey will make a nice addition to your fantasy team.

J.R. Towles (C) Astros - As we all know the depth at this position lacks the punch fantasy owners are looking for. For those who lost out on the fab five (Martin, Mauer, Posada, Martinez, and McCann) look no further then Towles. This rookie may surprise you in 2008. What impresses me is in AA Towles swiped 9 bags in 216 at-bats, pretty impressive for a catcher. We all know the need for steals is high.

One Thumb Up

Jay Bruce (OF) Reds - With Dusty Baker hating on rookies, except Joey Votto, Bruce is taking a back seat to newly acquired Corey Patterson who has impressed Dusty Baker with his decent spring numbers. Keep an eye on this situation. If Patterson struggles out of the gate an early call-up might be in the cards.

Evan Longoria (3B) Rays - This highly touted player in the Rays organization was sent down to AAA. Financial reasons may be behind this situation but as with Bruce keep an eye on Longoria in case he tears through AAA and has nothing to prove except his position in the bigs.

Thumbs Down

Cameron Maybin (OF) Marlins - One of the pieces in the big Cabrera/Willis deal with the Tigers was sent down to AA after struggling in camp finishing with a .190 batting average. Maybin has the potential in the future but most likely will not add value in fantasy leagues for 2008.

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Thursday, March 27, 2008

Injuries

Here are a few injuries to take note of.

Curtis Granderson (OF) 15-Day DL with a non-displaced fracture in his right middle finger.
Make sure to keep track of him throughout the next 2-3 weeks. He had some nice numbers in 2007 (122R, 23HR, 74RBI, 26SB, and a .302AVG)

Mark Prior (SP) 60-Day DL with a shoulder strain. He is still trying to work his way back from all the injuries he's experienced in the past few years. Yes, I know what you are saying, why the heck would I ever think about putting Mark Prior on my team. Well, he's changed teams, now he's with the San Diego Padres with a new environment. He's expected to return to the team on June 1. As he goes through the minor league rehab games make sure to keep up with his stats.

Scott Kazmir (SP) 15-Day DL with a left elbow strain. News on him is he's feeling good and has no pain in his elbow while throwing. People who drafted him don't worry just yet. Word is he will pitch late April early May.

Brad Lidge (RP) 15-Day DL recovering from right knee surgery. This is not a good sign for fantasy owners who have him as their closer. Make sure to go out and grab Tom Gordon because with all the problems Lidge is having with injuries and his lack of on-field performance since the Albert HR a few years back. But, he did show some solid work last season but make sure to keep a close eye on him.

Josh Beckett (SP) 15-Day DL with back spasms. He's completed some rehab work and is slated to pitch in the upcoming series versus the Blue Jays starting March 4. Did the Red Sox just say he had some back problems so he didn't have to travel to Japan?

Kelvim Escobar (SP) has a tear in his shoulder and might require season ending surgery or worse career ending. Owners need to keep a close eye on this situation. He had a nice 2007 (18-7, 195.2IP, 160K, and a 3.40ERA).

BJ Ryan (RP) is recovering from Tommy John Surgery and has pitched in Spring Training but will start the year on the DL with the Jays keeping a close on eye on this $47million investment. After reading reports, he will most likely be hitting the mound in late May early June.

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Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Harden pt. 3


Harden is finished after pitching 6 innings.

6IP, 3HITS, 1ER, 3BB, 9K, 1HR.

Nice start to the season.












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Harden pt. 2


Harden's average draft position (ADP) according to the guys over at www.mockdraftcentral.com is 212. That's the 17th round!!! Wow, if you get him in the 17th round and get 200IP, 12-15W, 180K's+, 3.90ERA, and a 1.2WHIP.

Can you say a fantasy championship in September?!?!

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Rich Harden


With all the arm problems Rich Harden has had throughout his career this may be the year he stays healthy. So far Rich Harden is showing what he can do when he is healthy. Through 6 innings in the second of a two game series, in Tokyo Japan to open the MLB season, Harden is throwing a 1 hitter...his one mistake a HR to my main man, Manny Ramirez.

As of the 6th inning. 6IP, 1R, 3HITS, 9K's, 3BB, 1ER.

Make sure to look at the K's. He's a prime example of the prototypical pitcher from my strategy, heavy on K's.

Only if Harden could stay healthy. He is a great late round pick in drafts and because of his upside. I have found that many people shy away from Harden because of his injury risk. If you already took a top 5 pitcher (Johan, Webb, Beckett, Peavy, or Sabathia) you have some room to take a chance on a pitcher like Harden.

If he stays healthy he has the potential to be a top 5 pitcher! Now that's upside!

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Manny Being Manny

MANNY MANNY MANNY!!!

After have a 2-5 with 2 doubles and 4RBI's Manny came back in the second game of the year with a blast to left field.

Take note...Manny Ramirez had a terrible year by his standards last year and he already has 2 doubles, 1HR, 2Runs, and 4RBI's. Maybe last year was just an off year.

2007 - .296, 20HR, 88RBI, 84RUNS.
2008 - Can you say.... .303, 37HR, 120RBI, 101RUNS...I hope so, he's on my team!

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Categories


After watching the catcher from Oakland, Kurt Suzuki, steal his first base in his major league career I thought about the two categories that are always in need during the fantasy season...steals and saves.

If you were unable to draft Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, or Chone Figgins you will need to take a look for base stealers before it's too late. If you don't have a guy on your team that can steal 50+ bags try and get people at every position who steal 5-10 bags a year. What makes a player like Carlos Lee a fantasy stud is the fact he contributes in all categories...10SB's in 2007. A few players in this category that can help with 10-15 steals a year include Russell Martin-C, Alex Rios-RF, Ryan Braun-3B, Alex Gordon-3B, Hunter Pence-OF, and what makes this next person a top 5 pick in any draft Matt Holliday-OF.

After looking over your team, subjectively, make note of how many steals you have and take a look at the waiver wire. Individuals like Juan Pierre, Dave Roberts, and Jerry Owens are one category studs. They do one thing and one thing only, STEAL. So, if you have a deep bench or have absolutely nothing in the steals category, go out and grab one of these individuals.

The second category I mentioned was saves. There is only a limited amount of saves out there and it falls into the hands of one pitcher per game. Take note, EVERY closer in baseball should be drafted because they offer something special and that's saves. Of course, the elite closers, Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Trevor Hoffman, and Francisco Rodriguez give you more than saves. Looking at the above and their stats, you will notice they provide a high K's/9 rate. A rate of 9K's/9 and higher is great. The elite closers will help in saves, ERA, K's, WHIP, and the occasional vulture win too. These players, as mentioned in my draft strategy, go for a premium in drafts and you will see these names fall in the first 7 rounds.

As the season progresses make sure to keep an eye on the closer battles throughout the league. Closers come and go so keeping a close eye on all the teams is a great way to pick up a newly crowned closer that might put you over the top for saves. A great example was in the 2006 season where I picked up Jonathan Papelbon straight off the FA list because I kept an eye on the closer situation around the league. This gave me a nice boost in saves and I turned around and traded him for Carlos Lee later in the year.

Which brings me to my next point. As the season progresses and if you were lucky to accumulate tons of saves, make sure to trade and gather players to boost your other categories which you need help in. You want to win your saves category, and every other category by ONE, so if you are leading by 50 at the end of the season but lost the stolen base and HR categories by ONE you just wasted a chance to win your league. EVERY POINT COUNTS.

It is only the second day of the season so don't panic. Remember, it's a long road and there are many storms and bumps along the way, just relax and enjoy the ride. If you need help in a category just look for a value trade or on the FA list. But don't do something stupid just because your players go 0-4 in their first game.

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Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Season Opener!!


Red Sox vs. A's...finally, the season is here!

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Monday, March 24, 2008

Draft Strategy

There are many competing strategies, that all work, but in my mind my strategy seems to work better than others. I focus on hitters and use pitchers to compliment and fill out my roster. My reasoning behind drafting premium hitters over arms is simple...pitchers are too volatile with respect to performance and injury risk. Hitters seem to perform as expected from year to year...having players that you don't have to worry about during the season reduces the stress of finding new players.

Here is a quick look into my draft strategy. I am assuming a 12-team, mixed, 5x5 league...also known as a vanilla league. I would draft 3 premium hitters before even thinking of a pitcher. Note: there is one and I mean only one pitcher worth picking in the first or second round...Johan Santana of the New York Mets. He is by far the best pitcher in the game. Now you might be wondering, how does this work in your strategy if you just said no pitchers...this is an exception. Okay, back to the strategy. Try and look for hitters who contribute to all 5 hitting categories. Individuals like A-Rod, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Matt Holliday, and Chase Utley. These players will absolutely go in the first round of ANY draft. After picking up 3 hitters, assuming you did not pick Santana, it is time to pick up a pitcher. This is the time, round 4/5, to pick up a premium pitcher, they include:

  • Johan Santana (He will not last past Round two)
  • Jake Peavy
  • Eric Bedard
  • C.C. Sabathia
  • Brandon Webb
The above list consists of the premium pitchers in baseball for the 2008 season. Taking one of these pitchers in Round 4-5-6 is a must! Okay, I'll retract on the "a must!" comment. You don't have to go out and draft one of these pitchers but if you do end up with one of them it will reduce the need during your draft to find quality pitchers. If you grab one of these guys you can wait another 2-4 rounds without having to draft another starter.

Now that I have 3 premium batters and a stud pitcher I try and focus on a closer. Remember, SAVES and STEALS are always the hardest to come by in fantasy baseball. So, go out in Round 5-8 and grab a premium closer. They include:
  • Billy Wagner
  • Joe Nathan
  • Jonathon Papelbon
  • Francisco Rodriguez
  • J.J. Putz
So, now you have 3 premium batters, 1 ace pitcher, and 1 premium closer. You are on your way to building a fantasy baseball championship team.

Looking at the player pool in 2008 there are positions that are weak and strong. Outfield is always weaker then you think. With 3 OF slots and a UTIL in most leagues you will find it difficult to draft 3 premium OF's. Third base this year is strong as well. If you do not get A-Rod or David Wright don't fear, you can get great stats at a good value from round 11-15 with the likes of Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, Chone Figgins, and don't forget about the touted 2007 rookie Alex Gordon. Second base is Chase Utley and everyone else. The position to watch out for in 2008 is the catcher position. There are 5 catchers worth drafting, Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada, and Brian McCann. If you don't get one of these catchers in the early single digit rounds, and you won't find them past round 8 TRUST ME, then don't even bother drafting a catcher until round 15+. It just isn't worth it with the talent out there. I didn't mention 1B or SS but both positions are fairly strong.

Okay a quick recap.
  • Hitters first! R1-3 maybe even 4
  • Premium pitchers R4-6
  • One of the top 5 catchers in round 5-6-7
  • Closer Rd5-8
After following this strategy you should have a decent team that can compete from day one. Remember, drafts are unpredictable except A-Rod as first pick, so remember, go with value over anything else.

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Sunday, March 23, 2008

Behind the MacBook Pro


As I sit here and begin my journey through another year of Fantasy Baseball, I have decided to document my experiences, thoughts, and random things that happen to me during the 2008 Fantasy Season. All I have is a MacBook Pro and almost a decade of Fantasy Baseball experience to bring this blog to you, so remember, I am not a professional writer nor am I claiming to be a professional Fantasy Baseball player. The thoughts, ideas, strategies, and pointers I bring to you are based on my experiences and ideas through all the years of playing this wonderful, yet addictive, game. If you are interested in viewing a Professional Fantasy baseball league please head towards www.toutwars.com this site is where the "big boys" play and where many, NOT including myself, head for some guidance.

If you are new to Fantasy Baseball and are interested in some literature, take a quick trip to the local bookstore and it can yield plenty of results. The titles will smack you over the face with the amount of options for you. The two big books that, in my opinion, all fantasy owners should take a look at are Moneyball by Michael Lewis and Fantasyland by Sam Walker. If you have the time I strongly recommend you to read both books, I promise you it won't be a waste of time.

Please take the time to follow my blog and please feel free to post a comment, question, suggestion, or whatever you deem important. I will try to update this blog 3-5 times a week but of course I promise nothing.

Enjoy the season, which starts on March 25, 2008 in Tokyo, Japan (where the Oakland A's play the Boston Red Sox) and finishes on September 28.

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